Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business. Show all posts

With record highs in sight, stocks face roadblocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wall Street needs to climb a wall of worry, it will have plenty of opportunity next week.


Major U.S. stock indexes will make another attempt at reaching all-time records, but the fitful pace that has dominated trading is likely to continue. Next Friday's unemployment report and the hefty spending cuts that look like they about to take effect will be at the forefront.


The importance of whether equities can reach and sustain those highs is more than Wall Street's usual fixation on numbers with psychological significance. Breaking through to uncharted territory is seen as a test of investors' faith in the rally.


"It's very significant," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.


"The thinking is, there's just not enough there for an extended bull run," he said. "If we do break through (record highs), then maybe the charts and price action are telling us there's something better ahead."


Flare-ups in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis and next Friday's report on the U.S. labor market could jostle the market, though U.S. job indicators have generally been trending in a positive direction.


Small- and mid-cap stocks hit lifetime highs in February. Now the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> and the S&P 500 <.spx> are racing each other to the top. The Dow, made up of 30 stocks, is about 75 points - less than 1 percent - away from its record close of 14,164.53, which it hit on October 9, 2007. The broader S&P is still 3 percent away from its closing high of 1,565.15, also reached on October 9, 2007.


The advantage may be in the Dow's court. So far in 2013, it has gained 7.5 percent, beating the S&P 500 by about 1 percent.


THE RALLY AND THE REALITY CHECK


The Dow's relative strength owes much to its unique make-up and calculation, as well as to investors' recent preference for buying value stocks likely to generate steady reliable gains, rather than growth stocks.


But the more defensive stance illustrates how stock buyers are getting concerned about this year's rally. While investors don't want to miss out on gains, they're picking up companies that are less likely to decline as much as high-flying names - if a market correction comes.


The Russell Value Index <.rav> is up 7.6 percent for the year so far, outpacing the Russell Growth Index's <.rag> 5.7 percent rise. Within the realm of the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector led the market in February, gaining 3.1 percent.


There is some concern that growth-oriented names are being eclipsed by defensive bets, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.


"This isn't a be-all and end-all sell signal by any means, but we would feel much more comfortable if some of the more aggressive areas, like technology and small caps, would start to gain some leadership here," Detrick said.


Signs that investors are becoming concerned about the rally's pace is evident in the options market, where the ratio of put activity to call activity has recently shifted in favor of puts, which represent expectations for a stock to fall.


"We are seeing some put hedging in the financials, building up for the past month," said Henry Schwartz, president of options analytics firm Trade Alert in New York.


The put-to-call ratio representing an aggregate of about 562 financial stocks is 1:1, when normally, calls should be outnumbering puts.


Investors have no shortage of reasons to crave the relative safety of blue chips and defensive stocks. Although markets have mostly looked past uncertainty over Washington's plans to cut the deficit, fiscal policy negotiations still pose a risk to equities.


The $85 billion in spending cuts set to begin on Friday is expected to slow economic growth this year if policymakers do not reach a new deal. Markets so far have held firm despite the wrangling in Washington, but tangible economic effects could pinch stock prices going forward.


The International Monetary Fund warned that full implementation of the cuts would probably take at least 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth this year.


EASY MONEY AND TEPID HIRING


Investors will also take in a round of economic data at a time when concerns are percolating that the market is being pushed up less by fundamentals and more by loose monetary policy around the world.


The main economic event will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report for February. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs last month, only a tad higher than in January, in a sign the labor market is healing at a slow pace. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 7.9 percent.


While lackluster data has been a catalyst in the past for stock market gains as investors bet it would ensure continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that sentiment may be wearing thin.


Markets stumbled last week following worries that the Fed might wind down its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.


"It shows the underpinning of the market is being driven at this point by monetary policy," Hellwig said.


With investors questioning what is behind the rally, it will make a run to record highs even more significant, Hellwig added.


"There's smart people that are in the bull camp and the bear camp and the muddle-through camp," Hellwig said. "The fact that you can statistically, using historical evidence, make a case for going higher, lower, or staying the same makes this number very important this time around."


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Comments or questions on this column can be emailed to: leah.schnurr(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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With record highs in sight, stocks face roadblocks

NEW YORK (Reuters) - If Wall Street needs to climb a wall of worry, it will have plenty of opportunity next week.


Major U.S. stock indexes will make another attempt at reaching all-time records, but the fitful pace that has dominated trading is likely to continue. Next Friday's unemployment report and the hefty spending cuts that look like they about to take effect will be at the forefront.


The importance of whether equities can reach and sustain those highs is more than Wall Street's usual fixation on numbers with psychological significance. Breaking through to uncharted territory is seen as a test of investors' faith in the rally.


"It's very significant," said Bucky Hellwig, senior vice president at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama.


"The thinking is, there's just not enough there for an extended bull run," he said. "If we do break through (record highs), then maybe the charts and price action are telling us there's something better ahead."


Flare-ups in the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis and next Friday's report on the U.S. labor market could jostle the market, though U.S. job indicators have generally been trending in a positive direction.


Small- and mid-cap stocks hit lifetime highs in February. Now the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> and the S&P 500 <.spx> are racing each other to the top. The Dow, made up of 30 stocks, is about 75 points - less than 1 percent - away from its record close of 14,164.53, which it hit on October 9, 2007. The broader S&P is still 3 percent away from its closing high of 1,565.15, also reached on October 9, 2007.


The advantage may be in the Dow's court. So far in 2013, it has gained 7.5 percent, beating the S&P 500 by about 1 percent.


THE RALLY AND THE REALITY CHECK


The Dow's relative strength owes much to its unique make-up and calculation, as well as to investors' recent preference for buying value stocks likely to generate steady reliable gains, rather than growth stocks.


But the more defensive stance illustrates how stock buyers are getting concerned about this year's rally. While investors don't want to miss out on gains, they're picking up companies that are less likely to decline as much as high-flying names - if a market correction comes.


The Russell Value Index <.rav> is up 7.6 percent for the year so far, outpacing the Russell Growth Index's <.rag> 5.7 percent rise. Within the realm of the S&P 500, the consumer staples sector led the market in February, gaining 3.1 percent.


There is some concern that growth-oriented names are being eclipsed by defensive bets, said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati.


"This isn't a be-all and end-all sell signal by any means, but we would feel much more comfortable if some of the more aggressive areas, like technology and small caps, would start to gain some leadership here," Detrick said.


Signs that investors are becoming concerned about the rally's pace is evident in the options market, where the ratio of put activity to call activity has recently shifted in favor of puts, which represent expectations for a stock to fall.


"We are seeing some put hedging in the financials, building up for the past month," said Henry Schwartz, president of options analytics firm Trade Alert in New York.


The put-to-call ratio representing an aggregate of about 562 financial stocks is 1:1, when normally, calls should be outnumbering puts.


Investors have no shortage of reasons to crave the relative safety of blue chips and defensive stocks. Although markets have mostly looked past uncertainty over Washington's plans to cut the deficit, fiscal policy negotiations still pose a risk to equities.


The $85 billion in spending cuts set to begin on Friday is expected to slow economic growth this year if policymakers do not reach a new deal. Markets so far have held firm despite the wrangling in Washington, but tangible economic effects could pinch stock prices going forward.


The International Monetary Fund warned that full implementation of the cuts would probably take at least 0.5 percentage point off U.S. growth this year.


EASY MONEY AND TEPID HIRING


Investors will also take in a round of economic data at a time when concerns are percolating that the market is being pushed up less by fundamentals and more by loose monetary policy around the world.


The main economic event will be Friday's non-farm payrolls report for February. The U.S. economy is expected to have added 160,000 jobs last month, only a tad higher than in January, in a sign the labor market is healing at a slow pace. The U.S. unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 7.9 percent.


While lackluster data has been a catalyst in the past for stock market gains as investors bet it would ensure continued stimulus from the Federal Reserve, that sentiment may be wearing thin.


Markets stumbled last week following worries that the Fed might wind down its quantitative easing program sooner than expected.


"It shows the underpinning of the market is being driven at this point by monetary policy," Hellwig said.


With investors questioning what is behind the rally, it will make a run to record highs even more significant, Hellwig added.


"There's smart people that are in the bull camp and the bear camp and the muddle-through camp," Hellwig said. "The fact that you can statistically, using historical evidence, make a case for going higher, lower, or staying the same makes this number very important this time around."


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Comments or questions on this column can be emailed to: leah.schnurr(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Asian shares capped by China PMI slip, U.S. budget worry

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares were capped on Friday, with sentiment dented by lackluster manufacturing data from China and worries over the economic fallout from Italy's political confusion as well as possible U.S. spending cuts.


European markets are seen narrowly mixed, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open between a 0.1 percent rise and a 0.2 percent fall. Italy's main FTSE MIB <.ftmib> stock market index is expected to open down 0.2 percent. <.l><.eu/>


A 0.1 percent drop in U.S. stock futures also hinted at a weak Wall Street start. <.n/>


But losses were limited by renewed confidence that major central banks will keep taking stimulative steps to support their economies.


China's factory growth cooled in February to multi-month lows after domestic demand dipped to weigh on firms already hit by slack foreign sales, two surveys showed on Friday, underlining the country's patchy economic recovery. But it does not signal China's economy is slipping into another slowdown, analysts said.


China's February official purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 50.1, slightly below a 50.2 Reuters poll consensus and the 50.4 posted in January. A private survey showed the final HSBC PMI fell to 50.4 after seasonal adjustments from January's two-year high of 52.3, in line with a flash reading.


"While comfort can be sought from the fact that the Chinese economy remains in expansion territory, the dip from prior PMI readings does illustrate that the recovery is far from linear and that there are still a few bumps in the road," said Tim Waterer, senior trader at Sydney-based CMC Markets.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was down 0.1 percent, after ending February up 0.5 percent, showing muted reaction to Chinese data.


Australian shares <.axjo> slipped 0.4 percent, pulling back from 4-1/2-year highs touched in the previous session, as big miners lost ground on lower metal prices. South Korean markets were closed on Friday for a public holiday.


The Australian dollar, which is sensitive to data from China, Australia's largest trading partner, was up 0.2 percent to $1.0230.


Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> erased earlier losses to rise 0.5 percent, lifted by expectations for strong reflationary measures from the Bank of Japan in coming months. <.t/>


Stocks in Indonesia edged higher to a fresh record. Data showed Indonesia's trade deficit narrowed slightly in January from the previous month as exports posted their smallest fall in nearly a year, reflecting recovering global demand and providing early hope that the nation's external balances may improve in 2013.


From Japan, Friday's data showed Japanese companies cut spending on plant and equipment in October-December by 8.7 percent from the same period last year, down for the first time in five quarters amid a slump in exports, showing the world's third-largest economy was still struggling to find a solid footing.


In contrast, a drop in new U.S. claims for jobless benefits last week and a sharp rise in factory activity in the Midwest in February suggested the U.S. economy is improving.


The relative outperformance of the world's leading economy over Japan's may soon turn the Japan-based yen selling into U.S.-led dollar buying, giving a fresh push higher in the dollar/yen, traders say.


The dollar inched up 0.1 percent to 92.65 against the yen.


One factor that could cloud such a positive outlook is the uncertainty over the possible extent of economic damage from the $85 billion in automatic across-the-board "sequestration" spending cuts in the United States set to begin taking effect on Friday.


"Financial markets are eerily calm about the issue. Nobody is talking about the sequestration, and I worry about the seeming lack of interest when market sentiment is far from stable after sharp swings following the Italian election," said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan at UBS in Tokyo.


He said reaction, if any, will likely come in equities and bonds first and spill over to forex, hitting risk-sensitive currencies which may possibly underpin the dollar.


The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it would likely cut its 2013 growth forecasts for the United States by at least a 0.5 percentage point if the cuts are fully implemented. The IMF now projects that the U.S. economy will grow 2 percent this year.


"The $85 billion in spending cuts is simply too small to make much of a difference to the economy and although it could cause some problems, it will have no bearing on influencing investor allocations among different asset classes," said Ed Meir, an analyst at INTL FCStone, in a note.


U.S. crude fell 0.1 percent to $91.93 a barrel, after earlier hitting a 2013 low of $91.43. Brent crude fell 0.3 percent to $111.05 after falling to a six-week low of $110.86 earlier. Oil prices were weighed by concerns about the global economy and the strength of demand.


Spot gold inched down 0.1 percent to $1,578.81 an ounce after dropping more than 1 percent on Thursday and ending February with its fifth straight monthly drop, the longest string of monthly declines since 1996.


The euro was up 0.1 percent to $1.3074, but near a seven-week trough of $1.3018 plumbed earlier in the week.


(Additional reporting by Luke Pachymuthu and Rujun Shen in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer)



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Risk assets rise on Fed stimulus vow, Italy debt sale

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares, commodity currencies and oil rose on Thursday as sentiment improved after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reaffirmed his commitment to strong stimulus measures, while a smooth debt sale calmed nerves jangled by Italy's political deadlock.


European markets are seen extending gains for a second day, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open as much as 0.6 percent higher. <.l><.eu/>


A 0.1 percent rise in U.S. stock futures also hinted at a firm Wall Street start. <.n/>


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.3 percent and was set for a monthly gain of 0.7 percent.


Australian shares <.axjo> soared 1.5 percent, Hong Kong shares <.hsi> added 1.2 percent and Indonesian stocks <.jkse> continued their bull run to hit another historic peak after closing on Wednesday at a record.


Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> climbed 1.3 percent as the yen softened. <.t/>


The yen was defensive, with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe nominating Asian Development Bank President Haruhiko Kuroda as Bank of Japan governor, and academic Kikuo Iwata as one of the two deputy governors. Both are seen by markets to support Abe's call for unconventional reflationary stimulus measures, and that view has underpinned yen selling.


Italy's inconclusive election last weekend raised fears that the euro zone's third-largest economy could abandon its fiscal reforms, but analysts and traders say they expect Rome to pursue a basic austerity path to pare down its huge debt, even if is at a more moderate pace, and that the European Central Bank will stand ready to provide funding support if needed.


The rally in equities and other risk assets showed the dimming appeal of safe-haven investments. A day after slumping nearly 1 percent on Wednesday, spot gold traded little changed around $1,597 an ounce and was headed for its longest run of monthly declines in more than 16 years.


"Gold's sentiment remains fickle, as it lacks a significant catalyst to propel the rally into the 13th year and people are more sensitive to even slightly bearish signs," said Chen Min, an analyst at Jinrui Futures in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen.


Bernanke, speaking before Congress for a second day, downplayed signs of internal divisions, saying the policy of quantitative easing has the support of a "significant majority" of top central bank policymakers.


Uncertainty over an imminent U.S. fiscal tightening could dampen the positive mood, however, as President Barack Obama and Republican congressional leaders have not reached a deal to avoid the $85-billion in automatic "sequestration" spending cuts, due to start on Friday.


Regional data released on Thursday was mixed.


Australian business investment showed a surprise fall last quarter as firms outside the red-hot mining sector cut back, while estimates of future spending confirmed the long boom in resource investment was likely to end this year.


Japan's industrial output, on the other hand, rose for a second straight month in January, offering some evidence that the export-reliant economy may be emerging from a mild recession, taking strength from a pick-up in global demand and the weaker yen.


ITALY SURVIVES


Italy's borrowing costs rose to a four-month high on Wednesday at the first bond auction since this week's inconclusive election but solid demand from domestic investors eased fears that the political deadlock could destabilize Europe's second-biggest sovereign debt market.


"Indeed there is room for optimism -- if the Italian risks remain contained -- as signals of stabilization continue to emerge," Barclays Capital said in a note.


The euro inched up 0.1 percent to $1.3143, well above a seven-week low of $1.3018 on Tuesday.


Others were more cautious.


"While confidence is high, there are still risks present. Negative political news from Italy may provide headwinds, while the looming 1 March deadline for the U.S. sequester could trigger $85 billion of across-the-board budget cuts," said Miguel Audencial, a sales trader with Sydney-based CMC Markets.


The yen steadied around 92.24 against the dollar. The yen hit its lowest since May 2010 of 94.77 on Monday before the outcome of the Italian vote rattled financial markets and sent the yen soaring to 90.85 yen.


The yen eased 0.1 percent against the euro to 121.19 after jumping to 118.74 on Monday.


U.S. crude rose 0.3 percent to $93.02 a barrel while Brent rose 0.2 percent to $112.07.


(Additional reporting by Luke Pachymuthu and Rujun Shen in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer)



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Wall Street rebounds on Bernanke comments, data

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks rebounded from their worst decline since November on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke defended the Fed's bond-buying stimulus and sales of new homes hit a 4 1/2-year high.


The S&P 500 had climbed 6 percent for the year and came within reach of all-time highs before the minutes from the Fed's January meeting were released last Wednesday. Since then, the benchmark S&P 500 has fallen 1 percent.


Bernanke, in testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee, strongly defended the Fed's bond-buying stimulus program and quieted rumblings that the central bank may pull back from its stimulative policy measures, which were sparked by the release of the Fed minutes last week.


Bernanke's comments helped ease investors' concerns about a stalemate in Italy after a general election failed to give any party a parliamentary majority, posing the threat of prolonged instability and financial crisis in Europe, and sending the S&P 500 to its worst decline since November 7 in Monday's session.


Bernanke "certainly said everything the market needed to feel in order to get comfortable again," said Peter Kenny, managing director at Knight Capital in Jersey City, New Jersey.


"The fear is we were going to see a rollover, and the first shot over the bow was what we saw out of Italy yesterday with the elections," Kenny said. "When it came to U.S. markets, we saw some of that bleeding stop because our focus shifted from the Italian political circus to Ben Bernanke."


Gains in homebuilders and other consumer stocks, following strong economic data, lifted the S&P 500, and a 5.7 percent jump in Home Depot to $67.56 boosted the Dow industrials. The PHLX housing sector index <.hgx> rose 3.2 percent.


Economic reports that showed strength in housing and consumer confidence also supported stocks. U.S. home prices rose more than expected in December, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index. Consumer confidence rebounded in February, jumping more than expected, and new-home sales rose to their highest in 4-1/2 years in January.


However, the central bank chairman also urged lawmakers to avoid sharp spending cuts set to go into effect on Friday, which he warned could combine with earlier tax increases to create a "significant headwind" for the economic recovery.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> gained 115.96 points, or 0.84 percent, to 13,900.13 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> rose 9.09 points, or 0.61 percent, to 1,496.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> advanced 13.40 points, or 0.43 percent, to close at 3,129.65.


Despite the bounce, the S&P 500 was unable to move back above 1,500, a closely watched level that was technical support until recently, but could now serve as a resistance point.


The CBOE Volatility Index <.vix> or the VIX, a barometer of investor anxiety, dropped 11.2 percent, a day after surging 34 percent, its biggest percentage jump since August 18, 2011.


The uncertainty caused by the Italian elections continued to weigh on stocks in Europe. The FTSEurofirst-300 index of top European shares <.fteu3> closed down 1.4 percent. The benchmark Italian index <.ftmib> tumbled 4.9 percent.


Home Depot gave the biggest boost to the Dow and provided one of the biggest lifts to the S&P 500 after the world's largest home improvement chain reported adjusted earnings and sales that beat expectations.


Macy's shares gained 2.8 percent to $39.59 after the department-store chain stated it expects full-year earnings to be above analysts' forecasts because of strong holiday sales.


Volume was active with about 7.08 billion shares traded on the New York Stock Exchange, NYSE MKT and Nasdaq, above the daily average of 6.48 billion.


Advancing stocks outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a ratio of about 2 to 1, while on the Nasdaq, three stocks rose for every two that fell.


(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Asian shares decline on deadlocked Italy election

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares took their lead from overnight plunges in global equities to fall on Tuesday as an apparently inconclusive election outcome in Italy raised fears of a resurgent euro zone debt crisis.


Italy's centre-left coalition will win a majority in the lower house of parliament but the upper house will be deadlocked, the Interior Ministry said on Tuesday after almost all votes were counted. No party or coalition won a majority of seats in the Senate, which a government would need to pass legislation.


A split parliament in the euro zone's third-largest economy is seen as likely to paralyze any new government and potentially reignite the euro-zone debt crisis.


"There's a possibility that the Italians might be heading back to the polls. In the short term, investors and traders don't like the uncertainty," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.


The yen and the euro stabilized while London copper and gold gained, and Asia's overall equities losses were limited compared to their global peers, such as U.S. benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> which suffered its worst one-day percentage decline since November 7 with a 1.8 percent tumble on Monday.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> fell 0.5 percent. Australian shares <.axjo> fell 0.7 percent, South Korean shares <.ks11> eased 0.4 percent while the Philippines stock market <.psi> plunged 1.2 percent after a record finish on Monday.


"There's an argument going on among traders at the moment. Was the Italian election result a cause or an excuse for something the market wanted to do? Because the market has run so hard we were due for a pull-back," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets. Australian shares last week scaled a 4-1/2-year high.


The yen resumed its retreat after firming sharply on Monday when nervousness about Italy exposed the yen to sharp reversals from its recent steep losses on bets of aggressive reflationary monetary policy in Japan.


The yen traded down 0.6 percent against the dollar at 92.35 after gaining 2 percent to a three-week high of 90.85 on Monday from its intraday low of 94.77 touched earlier in the day, its lowest since May 2010. The yen was also down 0.5 percent against the euro to 120.87 after jumping more than 3 percent to 118.74 on Monday from its day's low of 125.36.


Traders said the plunge in the dollar and the euro against the Japanese currency has provided fresh opportunities to buy these currencies against the yen, with many market players still seeing a weak yen trend continuing.


But the euro's rebound was limited, putting the single currency near its more than six-week low of $1.3047 hit on Monday on jitters about political gridlock in Italy hampering the country's efforts to reform and slash its debts.


"Uncertainty over the Italian election outcome and its impact will certainty keep the euro under strong pressure for some time," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.


"A safety net has been provided over the past year in the euro zone and given the size of Italy's economy, I doubt that the situation will turn into a disaster, but we need to carefully monitor developments. It revives memories of risks in the euro zone," Saito added.


The focus will now be on an Italian treasury bill auction on Tuesday when borrowing costs could rise, given the Senate election result.


The yen's overnight appreciation hit Japan's Nikkei stock average, with the index <.n225> declining 1.4 percent after closing at a 53-month high the day before. <.t/>


Investors also await testimony later in the day from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke for further clues of when the Fed intends to slow down or stop its bond-buying program.


Financial markets were rattled last week by minutes of the Fed's January meeting showing some Fed officials were mulling scaling back its strong monetary stimulus earlier than expected.


"Bernanke's testimony will likely drive global market sentiment tonight, as markets wait for clues on the Fed's exit strategy for its bond-buying stimulus program. Our house view is that Bernanke will remain dovish," ANZ said in a note.


Ahead of Bernanke's appearance, Dennis Lockhart, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, said on Monday that U.S. economic growth could surpass expectations this year, but an anemic labor market requires ongoing support from monetary policy.


The United States also faces downside risks to its economy if $85 billion in government-wide "sequestration" spending cuts go ahead on March 1.


U.S. crude slid 0.6 percent to $92.54 a barrel and Brent fell 0.5 percent to $113.86.


Spot gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,596.56 an ounce.


(Additional reporting by Manolo Serapio Jr in Singapore and Thuy Ong in Sydney; Editing by Eric Meijer)



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Investors face another Washington deadline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors face another Washington-imposed deadline on government spending cuts next week, but it's not generating the same level of fear as two months ago when the "fiscal cliff" loomed large.


Investors in sectors most likely to be affected by the cuts, like defense, seem untroubled that the budget talks could send stocks tumbling.


Talks on the U.S. budget crisis began again this week leading up to the March 1 deadline for the so-called sequestration when $85 billion in automatic federal spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.


"It's at this point a political hot button in Washington but a very low level investor concern," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The fight pits President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats against congressional Republicans.


Stocks rallied in early January after a compromise temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> has risen 6.3 percent since the start of the year.


But the benchmark index lost steam this week, posting its first week of losses since the start of the year. Minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which suggested the central bank may slow or stop its stimulus policy sooner than expected, provided the catalyst.


National elections in Italy on Sunday and Monday could also add to investor concern. Most investors expect a government headed by Pier Luigi Bersani to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. However, a resurgence by former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised doubts.


"Europe has been in the last six months less of a topic for the stock market, but the problems haven't gone away. This may bring back investor attention to that," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.


OPTIONS BULLS TARGET GAINS


The spending cuts, if they go ahead, could hit the defense industry particularly hard.


Yet in the options market, bulls were targeting gains in Lockheed Martin Corp , the Pentagon's biggest supplier.


Calls on the stock far outpaced puts, suggesting that many investors anticipate the stock to move higher. Overall options volume on the stock was 2.8 times the daily average with 17,000 calls and 3,360 puts traded, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert.


"The upside call buying in Lockheed solidifies the idea that option investors are not pricing in a lot of downside risk in most defense stocks from the likely impact of sequestration," said Jared Woodard, a founder of research and advisory firm condoroptions.com in Forest, Virginia.


The stock ended up 0.6 percent at $88.12 on Friday.


If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on reducing the U.S. budget deficit in the next few days, a sequester would include significant cuts in defense spending. Companies such as General Dynamics Corp and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp could be affected.


General Dynamics Corp shares rose 1.2 percent to $67.32 and Smith & Wesson added 4.6 percent to $9.18 on Friday.


EYES ON GDP DATA, APPLE


The latest data on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is expected on Thursday, and some analysts predict an upward revision following trade data that showed America's deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years.


U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, according to an earlier government estimate, but analysts said there was no reason for panic, given that consumer spending and business investment picked up.


Investors will be looking for any hints of changes in the Fed's policy of monetary easing when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaks before congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Shares of Apple will be watched closely next week when the company's annual stockholders' meeting is held.


On Friday, a U.S. judge handed outspoken hedge fund manager David Einhorn a victory in his battle with the iPhone maker, blocking the company from moving forward with a shareholder vote on a controversial proposal to limit the company's ability to issue preferred stock.


(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Investors face another Washington deadline

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors face another Washington-imposed deadline on government spending cuts next week, but it's not generating the same level of fear as two months ago when the "fiscal cliff" loomed large.


Investors in sectors most likely to be affected by the cuts, like defense, seem untroubled that the budget talks could send stocks tumbling.


Talks on the U.S. budget crisis began again this week leading up to the March 1 deadline for the so-called sequestration when $85 billion in automatic federal spending cuts are scheduled to take effect.


"It's at this point a political hot button in Washington but a very low level investor concern," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Lake Oswego, Oregon. The fight pits President Barack Obama and fellow Democrats against congressional Republicans.


Stocks rallied in early January after a compromise temporarily avoided the fiscal cliff, and the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> has risen 6.3 percent since the start of the year.


But the benchmark index lost steam this week, posting its first week of losses since the start of the year. Minutes on Wednesday from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which suggested the central bank may slow or stop its stimulus policy sooner than expected, provided the catalyst.


National elections in Italy on Sunday and Monday could also add to investor concern. Most investors expect a government headed by Pier Luigi Bersani to win and continue with reforms to tackle Italy's debt problems. However, a resurgence by former leader Silvio Berlusconi has raised doubts.


"Europe has been in the last six months less of a topic for the stock market, but the problems haven't gone away. This may bring back investor attention to that," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group in Pittsburgh.


OPTIONS BULLS TARGET GAINS


The spending cuts, if they go ahead, could hit the defense industry particularly hard.


Yet in the options market, bulls were targeting gains in Lockheed Martin Corp , the Pentagon's biggest supplier.


Calls on the stock far outpaced puts, suggesting that many investors anticipate the stock to move higher. Overall options volume on the stock was 2.8 times the daily average with 17,000 calls and 3,360 puts traded, according to options analytics firm Trade Alert.


"The upside call buying in Lockheed solidifies the idea that option investors are not pricing in a lot of downside risk in most defense stocks from the likely impact of sequestration," said Jared Woodard, a founder of research and advisory firm condoroptions.com in Forest, Virginia.


The stock ended up 0.6 percent at $88.12 on Friday.


If lawmakers fail to reach an agreement on reducing the U.S. budget deficit in the next few days, a sequester would include significant cuts in defense spending. Companies such as General Dynamics Corp and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp could be affected.


General Dynamics Corp shares rose 1.2 percent to $67.32 and Smith & Wesson added 4.6 percent to $9.18 on Friday.


EYES ON GDP DATA, APPLE


The latest data on fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product is expected on Thursday, and some analysts predict an upward revision following trade data that showed America's deficit shrank in December to its narrowest in nearly three years.


U.S. GDP unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter, according to an earlier government estimate, but analysts said there was no reason for panic, given that consumer spending and business investment picked up.


Investors will be looking for any hints of changes in the Fed's policy of monetary easing when Fed Chairman Ben Bernake speaks before congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday.


Shares of Apple will be watched closely next week when the company's annual stockholders' meeting is held.


On Friday, a U.S. judge handed outspoken hedge fund manager David Einhorn a victory in his battle with the iPhone maker, blocking the company from moving forward with a shareholder vote on a controversial proposal to limit the company's ability to issue preferred stock.


(Additional reporting by Doris Frankel; Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Jobs, factory, inflation data favor easy Fed policy


WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A raft of U.S. economic data on Thursday from claims for jobless aid to factory activity and consumer prices pointed to a still tepid recovery and supported the argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain its monetary stimulus.


The Fed is currently buying $85 billion in bonds per month and has said it would keep up purchases until the labor market outlook improves substantially, although officials are increasingly divided over the wisdom of that course.


"The economy is in a holding pattern. It's not going to strengthen sufficiently to justify an end of the current program," said Millan Mulraine, senior economist at TD Securities in New York.


Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 20,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, unwinding the bulk of the prior week's decline, the Labor Department said.


A second report from the department showed consumer prices were flat for a second straight month in January as gasoline prices fell and the cost of food held steady.


In the 12 months through January, consumer prices rose 1.6 percent, the smallest gain since July. That suggested there was little inflation pressure to worry the Fed.


Concerns over tepid job growth prompted the U.S. central bank last year to embark on its open-ended bond buying program.


However, minutes of the Fed's January 29-30 policy meeting published on Wednesday showed some policymakers feel the central bank may have to slow or stop the asset purchases before it sees an acceleration in job growth because of concerns over the financial risks of the program.


Those diverging views were evident on Thursday, with two Fed officials signaling support for scaling back the program, while another outlined the case for maintaining bond purchases until well into the second half of the year.


MANUFACTURING SLOWING


News on the manufacturing sector, which has supported the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, was downbeat.


The Philadelphia Fed's business activity index dropped to minus 12.5 in February, the lowest level since June. The index, which measures factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region, had fallen to minus 5.8 in January.


A reading below zero indicates contraction in the region's manufacturing sector. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.


Another report from financial data firm Markit that tries to gauge overall national factory activity showed manufacturing growth slowed in February but remained near a nine-month peak.


"We believe manufacturing activity will continue to expand early in 2013," said Daniel Silver, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.


The claims and factory reports, as well as weak data from Europe weighed on U.S. stocks. The Standard & Poor's 500 index recorded its worst two-day loss since November.


Prices for U.S. government debt rose and the dollar touched a 5-1/2-month high against a basket of currencies.


Growth in the U.S. economy braked sharply in the fourth quarter, but it expanded at a 2.2 percent clip for the full year. Output is being hampered by lackluster demand as employment struggles to gain traction.


Job growth has been far less than the at least 250,000 per month over a sustained period that economists say is needed to significantly reduce the ranks of unemployed. The unemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage point to 7.9 percent in January.


Last week's claims data covered the survey period for the government's closely watched monthly tally of nonfarm jobs. Claims were up 27,000 between the January and February survey periods.


However, the increase probably does not suggest any material change in the pace of job growth given that claims have been very volatile since January because of difficulties smoothing the data for seasonal fluctuations.


Despite the weak factory and jobs data, there is reason for optimism about the economy. The housing market recovery is gaining momentum.


A report from the National Association of Realtors showed existing home sales rose 0.4 percent last month, pushing the supply of homes on the market to a 13-year low. The median home price rose 12.3 percent from a year earlier.


Rising home values should help to support consumer spending.


Although consumer prices excluding food and energy rose 0.3 percent - the largest gain since May 2011 - most of that reflected outsized increases in apparel and education costs.


"January is a tough month because you get a lot of price hikes at the start of the new year and the seasonals have a hard time sort of adjusting," said Omair Sharif, an economist at RBS in Stamford, Connecticut.


"I don't expect the core CPI to maintain that pace of increase in the near term."


(Additional reporting by Jason Lange in Washington and Steven C Johnson in New York; Editing by Andrea Ricci and James Dalgleish)



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Wall Street ends down sharply after Fed minutes

TORONTO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Canada's Rebecca Marino, a rising star in women's tennis, stepped away from the sport in search of a normal life on Wednesday, weary of battling depression and cyber-bullies. Ranked number 38 in the world two years ago, the 22-year-old admitted she had long suffered from depression and was no longer willing to make the sacrifices necessary to reach the top. "After thinking long and hard, I do not have the passion or enjoyment to drive myself to the level I would like to be at in professional tennis," Marino explained in a conference call. ...
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Asian shares hit 18-month high on growth hopes

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares rose to their highest since August 2011 on Wednesday after an improving global economic outlook boosted world equities overnight, encouraging investors to take on risk.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> added 0.7 percent, rose for a third day in a row, led by a 1.7 percent gain in its technology sector <.miapjit00pus>. The index has risen 4 percent so far this year.


Asian shares have been on an uptrend as risks from the euro zone debt crisis the U.S. fiscal crisis abated and signs of tepid recovery emerged in major economies including China. Corporate earnings have also been generally positive.


"A shift to cyclicals from defensives has come to a full circle and investors are now looking at sector-specific factors within an asset class, selecting those with a tight supply/demand outlook," said Naohiro Niimura, a partner at research and consulting firm Market Risk Advisory.


News of possible fresh mergers boosted U.S. stocks on Tuesday, pinning the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> near a five-year high, while a stronger-than-expected rise in the German ZEW investor sentiment index to a three-year high supported European stocks.


Australian shares rose 0.4 percent, extending a rally that has taken the market to 4-1/2 year highs, with financials and retailers supporting prices. The Australian market has risen nearly 10 percent this year.


"There's a few good earnings reports but I think it's this hunt for yield that continues to push our market higher," Weston said. "I think that's keeping the support; the market doesn't want to go down and you just don't want to be missing out."


South Korean shares <.ks11> outperformed with a 1.5 percent jump to hit a one-month high, as foreigners stepped up buying and a pause in the yen's falling trend soothed sentiment.


"The KOSPI had decoupled with global equities in January because of currency moves and foreign selling. But this is changing with the pace of currency changes easing," Shawn Oh, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said of Seoul shares.


Positive growth in Southeast Asia has drawn foreign investors, keeping regional stocks robust. The Philippines stock market <.psi> extended gains to a record high while Bangkok's SET index <.seti> hit a fresh 18-year high.


The rise in equities weighed on assets perceived as safe-haven, such U.S. Treasuries and gold on Tuesday. Spot gold inched up 0.2 percent to $1,607.94 an ounce, but hovered near a six-month low hit the day before.


London copper climbed 0.6 percent to $8,095 a metric ton, off Tuesday's three-week lows.


Tokyo's Nikkei stock average <.n225> added 0.7 percent, after touching a 52-month high. <.t/>


The yen remained jittery, swinging in narrow ranges on concerns Japan may not be able to pursue as strong a reflationary policy mix as previously thought.


A week-long delay in the government nominating a new Bank of Japan governor fuelled talk of friction between the prime minister and the finance minister over who should run a central bank charged with taking bold action to reignite the economy.


The dollar eased 0.1 percent to 93.49 yen, still near its highest since May 2010 of 94.465 hit on February 11. The euro was up 0.1 percent to 125.36 yen. It touched a peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen on February 6.


Sterling was under pressure on growing speculation the UK could soon lose its prized triple-A credit rating. Sterling traded at $1.5444, having plumbed a seven-month low at $1.5414 in New York.


"Markets continued to consolidate while reallocation trades helped risky assets to outperform and the USD to come under some pressure," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note to clients.


"Fears regarding the UK are steadily rising, reinforcing a bearish tendency...We remain short GBP, CHF, JPY and AUD," he said, adding that the market will use any bearish excuse to sell the yen.


Japan logged its biggest monthly trade deficit on record in January, underscoring the country's deteriorating trade balances and accenting the yen's weak fundamental trend.


Investors remained wary of the possible U.S. federal spending cuts and outcome of the upcoming Italian election, limiting losses in sovereign bonds.


The ZEW report was a positive sign ahead of the more important euro zone flash PMIs on Thursday and Germany's IFO business sentiment on Friday, said Vassili Serebriakov, a strategist at BNP Paribas.


U.S. crude steadied around $96.70 a barrel but Brent eased 0.2 percent to $117.34.


(Additional reporting by Thuy Ong in Sydney and Hyunjoo Jin in Seoul; Edting by Eric Meijer)



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Asian shares listless, yen firmer but near lows

TOKYO (Reuters) - Most Asian shares barely moved on Tuesday as a holiday in the U.S. overnight and a lack of catalysts kept many investors on the sidelines.


Concerns about the euro zone economy, U.S. fiscal talks and Chinese appetite limited gains in commodities and also weighed on the euro.


The dollar's strength against a basket of currencies <.dxy> also weighed on commodities and capped gains in gold.


"Markets have become top-heavy after rallying through early February on signs of economic recovery in the United States and Europe, and investors now await fresh factors to push prices higher from here," said Tomomichi Akuta, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Research and Consulting in Tokyo.


"The broad sentiment is underpinned by a lack of tail risks, but investors are turning to some potentially worrying elements such as Italian elections and U.S. budget talks," he said.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was flat after briefly touching a 18-1/2-month high. The index has gained 3.5 percent this year.


Disappointing earnings pushed European shares lower on Monday for a third straight session while U.S. markets were closed for the President's Day holiday.


The risk of an inconclusive outcome in Italy's election this weekend added to concerns while investors kept eyes on Washington where policymakers are discussing a package of budget cuts set to kick in March 1, which analysts warn could hurt the economy.


"We didn't have a lead from Wall St overnight, we also had weakness coming through from European markets overnight, so we were never expecting a strong day," said Juliette Saly, stock market analyst at Commonwealth Securities in Sydney.


Australian shares <.axjo> edged up 0.1 percent as investors focused on local corporate earnings for direction after a three-month rally that has taken the market to 4-1/2 year highs.


The Nikkei stock average <.n225> eased 0.2 percent, after closing up 2.1 percent on Monday to approach its highest level since September 2008 of 11,498.42 tapped on February 6. <.t/>


Spot gold was up 0.3 percent at $1,614.01 an ounce.


London copper inched up 0.3 percent to $8,144 a tonne as Monday's three-week low drew bargain hunting given prospects for a slowly improving global economic recovery. Unease over China's limp return to the market from a week-long break held back upside momentum, however.


U.S. crude fell 0.3 percent to $95.59 a barrel while Brent inched up 0.1 percent to $117.48.


The euro was steady around $1.3344. The currency eased slightly on Monday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in a speech at the European Parliament that "the exchange rate is not a policy target but is important for growth and price stability" and that its rise is "a risk."


YEN JITTERY


The yen remained near recent lows on Tuesday, as attention turned to the appointment of a new Bank of Japan governor.


The yen, which has dropped 20 percent against the dollar since mid-November, fell further at the start of the week after financial leaders from the G20 promised not to devalue their currencies to boost exports and avoided singling out Japan for any direct criticism.


The choice of the next BOJ governor and two deputies has drawn attention as a gauge of how strongly Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is committed to reflating the economy. The G20's message was that as long as Japan pursues aggressive monetary easing to achieve that goal, a weaker yen as a result of such domestic monetary policy will be tolerated, analysts say.


"But that means that some other economy's monetary conditions have been tightened," said Barclays Capital in a note.


"Japan hasn't even changed its policy stance thus far, and the effect of expectations of a looser setting have led to limited moves in domestic interest rates, but the sell-off of the JPY has been marked and has clearly caused unease in other economies," the note said.


Market reaction was muted to the release of the minutes of the BOJ's January 21-22 meeting, when the bank set a 2 percent inflation target and pledged an open-ended quantitative easing from 2014. But the yen was bought when Finance Minister Taro Aso told reporters Japan has no plans to buy foreign currency bonds as part of monetary easing, a trader said.


The dollar was down 0.2 percent to 93.73 yen, but remained near its highest since May 2010 of 94.465 hit on February 11. The euro also eased 0.3 percent to 125.05 yen, below its peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched on February 6.


(Additional reporting by Maggie Lu Yueyang and Thuy Ong in Sydney; Editing by Richard Borsuk)



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Japan stocks rally, yen resumes fall after G20

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japanese shares jumped closer to a four-year high as the yen slumped on Monday after Tokyo dodged direct criticism from G20 peers on the aggressive reflation plans that have weakened the currency.


The G20 opted not to single out Tokyo, but committed members to refrain from competitive devaluations and said monetary policy would be directed only at price stability and growth. Japan said this decision is a green light to pursue its expansionary policies.


The dollar soared 0.7 percent to 94.17 yen inching closer to its highest since May 2010 of 94.465 hit on February 11. The euro added 0.3 percent to 125.51 yen, still below its peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched on February 6.


The Nikkei average <.n225> jumped 2.3 percent as exporters and banks led the pack on the softening yen. <.t/>


The market's focus is now on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's nominee for the next Bank of Japan governor. Abe is expected to announce his choice in coming days.


Sources told Reuters that former top financial bureaucrat Toshiro Muto is leading the field of candidates to govern the bank. He is expected to intensify stimulus efforts to energize the economy.


"The G20's message is that monetary easing is OK, but not to imply anything about leading a currency weaker. The G20 effect is already seen in Abe's general comments on forex today which steered away from giving specifics on a preferred level or direction for the yen," said Yunosuke Ikeda, a senior FX strategist at Nomura Securities.


Abe said on Monday that the BOJ's monetary easing is aimed at beating deflation, not at manipulating the forex market and weakening the yen, and said correcting excessive yen rises would be an appropriate policy direction. Previously, Japanese officials have noted that the current yen selling was a correction to the past excessive yen strength.


The yen's weakness weighed on emerging Asian currencies while South Korean shares <.ks11> eased 0.3 percent on concerns about the eroding competitive edge for the country's exporters.


"Japan will keep seeking the current policy. The rest of Asia will not just wait and see. That will put more pressure on Asian currencies," said Yuna Park, a currency and bond analyst at Dongbu Securities in Seoul.


A weaker yen would make other currencies relatively stronger against the dollar and fuel speculation that other Asian countries could step in to curb the strength of their currencies, Ikeda said.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> eased 0.2 percent. The pan-Asian index briefly hit a 18-1/2-month high on Friday and had its best performance since the week of January 6 with a 1.2 percent weekly gain.


On Friday, MSCI's all-country world index <.miwd00000pus>, a measure of global equity activity, traded down 0.26 percent, while European shares closed lower and U.S. stocks ended flat.


Australian shares rose 0.5 percent as miners gained on hopes that top customer China might start buying after the Lunar New Year holidays, while blue chips Commonwealth Bank of Australia and Telstra Corp Ltd dropped after trading ex-dividend.


Markets in China and Taiwan resumed trading after a week-long holiday.


STOCKS CONSOLIDATE


Data from EPFR Global on Friday underscored that a consolidation was underway in global equities after their recent rally. It showed investors worldwide pulled $3.62 billion from U.S. stock funds in the latest week, the most in ten weeks after taking a neutral stance the prior week. But demand for emerging market equities remained strong, with investors putting $1.81 billion in new cash into stock funds, the fund-tracking firm said.


Demand for commodities will likely be in focus as China returns to the market.


Investors are also expected to focus on fiscal talks in Washington, where policymakers are discussing a package of budget cuts set to kick in on March 1. Analysts say the austerity measures could hurt the U.S. economy.


U.S. crude fell 0.2 percent to $95.63 a barrel but Brent inched up 0.1 percent to $117.81.


Gold rebounded from a six-month low on Monday as bargain hunters resurfaced and jewelers in China returned to the physical market after the Lunar New Year holiday, but a firm U.S. dollar was likely to limit the upside.


(The story corrects Nikkei near 4-year high, not 33-month, in bullet and lead paragraph.)


(Additional reporting by Jongwoo Cheon; in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Eric Meijer)



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After decent rally, perhaps time for a pause

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks could struggle to extend their seven-week winning streak as the quarterly earnings period draws to a close and the market bumps into strong technical resistance.


Many analysts say the market could spend the next few weeks consolidating gains that have lifted the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 <.spx> by 6.6 percent since the start of the year.


The S&P 500 ended up 0.1 percent for the week, recovering from a late sell-off on Friday after a Bloomberg report about slow February sales at Wal-Mart triggered a slide in the retailer's shares. It was the index's seventh week of gains.


Odds of a pullback are increasing, with the market in slightly overbought territory, said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.


"I do suspect the closing of the earnings season will lead to at least a pause and possibly a pullback," Zaro said. The S&P 500 could shave 3 to 5 percent between now and early April, he said.


Fourth-quarter earnings have mostly beaten expectations. Year-over-year profit growth for S&P 500 companies is now estimated at 5.6 percent, up from a January 1 forecast for 2.9 percent growth, and 70 percent of companies are exceeding analyst profit expectations, above the 62 percent long-term average, according to Thomson Reuters data.


On Thursday, Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, is due to report results, unofficially closing out the earnings period. Investors will be keen to see its quarterly numbers, especially after the Friday's news report that rattled investors.


The S&P 500 has gained 4.3 percent since Alcoa kicked off the earnings season on January 8.


The approaching March 1 deadline for across-the-board federal budget cuts unless Congress reaches a compromise adds another reason for caution, especially with recent economic data indicating the recovery remains bumpy.


Manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent last month, the Federal Reserve said on Friday, but production in November and December was much stronger than previously thought.


TESTING RESISTANCE


The S&P 500 has been trading near five-year highs, and it notched its highest level since November 2007 this week. But the gains have pushed the benchmark index almost as far as it is likely to go in the near term, with strong resistance hovering around 1,525 and 1,540, one analyst said.


As a result, the index is set to move sideways, said Dave Chojnacki, market technician at Street One Financial in Huntington Valley, Pennsylvania. "We just don't have the volume or the catalyst right now" to go above those levels, he said.


At the same time, other analysts say, the market has not shown significant signs of slowing, including a break below 15- and 30-day moving averages.


Such moves would be needed to show that momentum is slowing or that the market is at risk of a correction, said Todd Salamone, director of research for Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio. The S&P 500's 14-day moving average is at 1,511 while the 30-day is at 1,494. The index closed Friday at 1,519.


Recent M&A activity, including news this week of a merger between American Airlines and US Airways Group , helped provide some strength for the market this week and optimism that more deals may be on the way.


In the coming days, the market will focus on minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, which could provide support if they suggest the Fed will remain on its current course of aggressive monetary easing.


The Fed minutes released in January spooked markets a bit when they revealed that some Fed officials thought it would be appropriate to consider ending asset purchases later in 2013. U.S. Treasury yields rose on that news, though market worries about a near-term end to quantitative easing have since faded.


Among other companies expected to report earnings next week are Nordstrom , Hewlett-Packard and Marriott International


(Reporting By Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Leslie Adler)



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After decent rally, perhaps time for a pause

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks could struggle to extend their seven-week winning streak as the quarterly earnings period draws to a close and the market bumps into strong technical resistance.


Many analysts say the market could spend the next few weeks consolidating gains that have lifted the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 <.spx> by 6.6 percent since the start of the year.


The S&P 500 ended up 0.1 percent for the week, recovering from a late sell-off on Friday after a Bloomberg report about slow February sales at Wal-Mart triggered a slide in the retailer's shares. It was the index's seventh week of gains.


Odds of a pullback are increasing, with the market in slightly overbought territory, said Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston.


"I do suspect the closing of the earnings season will lead to at least a pause and possibly a pullback," Zaro said. The S&P 500 could shave 3 to 5 percent between now and early April, he said.


Fourth-quarter earnings have mostly beaten expectations. Year-over-year profit growth for S&P 500 companies is now estimated at 5.6 percent, up from a January 1 forecast for 2.9 percent growth, and 70 percent of companies are exceeding analyst profit expectations, above the 62 percent long-term average, according to Thomson Reuters data.


On Thursday, Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, is due to report results, unofficially closing out the earnings period. Investors will be keen to see its quarterly numbers, especially after the Friday's news report that rattled investors.


The S&P 500 has gained 4.3 percent since Alcoa kicked off the earnings season on January 8.


The approaching March 1 deadline for across-the-board federal budget cuts unless Congress reaches a compromise adds another reason for caution, especially with recent economic data indicating the recovery remains bumpy.


Manufacturing output fell 0.4 percent last month, the Federal Reserve said on Friday, but production in November and December was much stronger than previously thought.


TESTING RESISTANCE


The S&P 500 has been trading near five-year highs, and it notched its highest level since November 2007 this week. But the gains have pushed the benchmark index almost as far as it is likely to go in the near term, with strong resistance hovering around 1,525 and 1,540, one analyst said.


As a result, the index is set to move sideways, said Dave Chojnacki, market technician at Street One Financial in Huntington Valley, Pennsylvania. "We just don't have the volume or the catalyst right now" to go above those levels, he said.


At the same time, other analysts say, the market has not shown significant signs of slowing, including a break below 15- and 30-day moving averages.


Such moves would be needed to show that momentum is slowing or that the market is at risk of a correction, said Todd Salamone, director of research for Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio. The S&P 500's 14-day moving average is at 1,511 while the 30-day is at 1,494. The index closed Friday at 1,519.


Recent M&A activity, including news this week of a merger between American Airlines and US Airways Group , helped provide some strength for the market this week and optimism that more deals may be on the way.


In the coming days, the market will focus on minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting, due to be released on Wednesday, which could provide support if they suggest the Fed will remain on its current course of aggressive monetary easing.


The Fed minutes released in January spooked markets a bit when they revealed that some Fed officials thought it would be appropriate to consider ending asset purchases later in 2013. U.S. Treasury yields rose on that news, though market worries about a near-term end to quantitative easing have since faded.


Among other companies expected to report earnings next week are Nordstrom , Hewlett-Packard and Marriott International


(Reporting By Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Leslie Adler)



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Wall Street ends slightly higher, helped by acquisitions

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 eked out a small gain for a third straight session on Thursday, helped by a flurry of merger activity, though investors see no catalysts to lift the market further with major averages near multi-year highs.


The market's slowed advance took the S&P 500 to its highest intraday level since November 2007 on Wednesday. While the index notched its third straight day of gains, none was more than 0.2 percent.


Shares of H.J. Heinz Co jumped 20 percent to $72.50 after it said Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway and 3G Capital will buy the food company for $72.50 a share, or $28 billion including debt. Berkshire's class B shares rose 1.3 percent to $99.21.


Also supporting the market was data showing the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected in the latest week. The CBOE Volatility index <.vix> fell 2.4 percent, dropping to 12.67.


"While I'm not bearish, I don't see many upside motivations at these levels," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities in New York, who cited the low level of the VIX as a sign the market was overbought.


Equities have struggled to break above current levels where they have been hovering for almost two weeks. The S&P 500 is up more than 6 percent so far this year.


"We need to digest some of our gains to go higher, but people are so eager to buy on the dips that we're not even seeing dips anymore. People are just chasing the market higher," said Selkin, who helps oversee about $3 billion in assets.


Stocks fell earlier after a report the euro zone's gross domestic product contracted by the steepest amount since the first quarter of 2009. In addition, Japan's GDP shrank 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, crushing expectations of a modest return to growth.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> was down 9.52 points, or 0.07 percent, at 13,973.39. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> was up 1.05 points, or 0.07 percent, at 1,521.38. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> was up 1.78 points, or 0.06 percent, at 3,198.66.


Constellation Brands soared 37 percent to $43.75 after AB InBev's deal to take over Mexican brewer Grupo Modelo was revised to grant Constellation perpetual rights to distribute Corona and other Modelo brands in the United States. U.S. shares of AB InBev gained 5.1 percent to $92.77.


American Airlines and US Airways Group said they plan to merge in a deal that will form the world's biggest air carrier, with an equity valuation of about $11 billion. US Airways shares fell 4.6 percent to $13.99.


Weakness in Europe contributed to a 5 percent drop in revenue from the region for Cisco Systems , which nonetheless beat estimates as it reported its results late Wednesday. The company's shares dipped 0.7 percent to $20.99.


General Motors Co reported a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter profit, also citing bigger losses in Europe alongside lower prices in its core North American market. The stock was off 3.3 percent to $27.73.


Only five more stocks rose than fell on the New York Stock Exchange, while 51 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares closed higher.


Volume was light, with about 6.36 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.


(Editing by Nick Zieminski and Kenneth Barry)



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Asian shares gain on improving sentiment, G20 eyed

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on improving risk sentiment while the yen steadied ahead of the weekend meeting of G20 finance and central bank officials, whose views on global growth and differences over currencies will be scrutinized by investors.


"Asian markets have extended gains with risk sentiment remaining resilient as markets continue to push to new highs. Ahead of the European open, we are calling the major bourses relatively flat with GDP numbers in focus," Stan Shamu, market strategist at IG Markets, said in a note.


Financial spreadbetters were predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open little changed ahead of European gross domestic data. U.S. stock futures were also steady, suggesting a similarly quiet Wall Street open. <.l><.eu><.n/>


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> extended gains, rising 0.6 percent as its materials sector <.mispjmt00pous> outperformed with a 1.6 percent increase partly on a jump in shares of top miners ahead of earnings news from Rio Tinto .


Australian shares rose 0.7 percent to their highest since September 2008, as a strong earnings season and receding fears about European and U.S. debt woes bolstered investor sentiment.


South Korean shares <.ks11> were flat after Wednesday's three-week closing high and biggest daily percentage gain since January 2 when investors cheered a pause in the yen's decline.


Market reaction was muted after monetary policy decisions from South Korea and Japan during Thursday's sessions.


The Bank of Korea held interest rates steady for a fourth straight month as expected, as global economies show signs of improvement and domestic inflation remains low. But the decision was not unanimous, its governor told a news conference.


The Bank of Japan also kept monetary policy steady and upgraded its economic assessment, as recent falls in the yen and signs of a pick-up in global growth give it some breathing space after expanding stimulus just a month ago.


A pause in the yen's rebound positively affected Japanese equities on Thursday, with the Nikkei average <.n225> advancing 0.7 percent after Wednesday's 1 percent slump when the firming yen prompted investors to take profits on exporters. <.t/>


"Usually the BOJ doing nothing causes a bit of disappointment, but since there are concerns about the flak Japan might get at the G20 this weekend for the weakening yen, standing pat will actually be a relief to the market," said Masayuki Doshida, senior market analyst at Rakuten Securities.


Markets in China and Taiwan remain shut for the Lunar New Year holiday but Hong Kong resumed trading on Thursday.


YEN IN SPOTLIGHT


The dollar recouped earlier losses to inch up 0.1 percent to 93.49 yen after marking its highest level since May 2010 of 94.465 on Monday. The euro steadied at 125.60 yen, below its peak since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched last week.


The yen lost nearly 20 percent against the dollar between November and early February, and more than 20 percent against the euro.


The yen began its steady fall in mid-November as expectations built for a new government to take aggressive steps to bring Japan out of years of slump. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is pushing for strong reflationary steps, pressuring the BOJ to take unprecedented expansionary measures.


The yen's rapid depreciation, after years of sharp appreciation, has drawn some criticism from overseas, with rhetoric heating up ahead of the Group of 20 nations meeting on Friday and Saturday in Moscow.


Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak told reporters on Wednesday in Moscow that the yen was "definitely overvalued" and that "there are no signs" that Japan's monetary authorities were intervening on the foreign exchanges.


Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo, said various interpretations this week over what the G20 may say about Japan's policy and a weak yen trend "have been used as an excuse to adjust positions ahead of the meeting, and I expect forex to be in ranges."


"Currency will be discussed but I think Russia wants the meeting to focus on broader economic issues involving emerging markets as it is the G20 gathering," he said.


Traders and analysts say 90-95 yen to the dollar appeared to be a comfortable range for now, unless upside surprises emerge in the U.S. economy or Japan quickly implements unexpectedly drastic reflationary policies, both of which will swing the dollar higher above the range.


They said the yen's upside was also capped around 87 yen, halfway between its slump from mid-November to early February.


Market reaction was muted to comments from Jack Lew, President Barack Obama's pick to run the Treasury Department, who on Wednesday said he would support a strong U.S. dollar, in line with longstanding U.S. policy.


Data published on Thursday showed Japan's economy shrank 0.1 percent in October-December from the previous quarter, falling for a third straight quarter.


U.S. crude was up 0.1 percent to $97.13 a barrel and Brent added 0.1 percent to $117.98.


London copper rose 0.2 percent to $8,240.50 a metric ton (1.1023 tons).


Gold regained some strength as recent losses attracted buying interest from Asian jewellers after the Lunar New Year break, but firmer equities could limit gains.


(Additional reporting by Joyce Lee in Seoul and Tomo Uetake in Tokyo; Editing by Eric Meijer and Richard Borsuk)



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Firmer yen boosts Korean shares, underpins Asia stocks

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares outside of Japan rose on Wednesday, led by South Korean exporters as the yen firmed amid conflicting interpretations of G7 comments about the currency's recent weakness.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> gained 0.9 percent.


Seoul shares <.ks11> outperformed with a 1.5 percent jump while Australian shares jumped 0.9 percent after record first-half earnings from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia boosted sentiment.


The Nikkei stock average <.n225> slumped 1.1 percent as the firming yen prompted investors to take profits on exporters. <.t/>


China, Taiwan and Hong Kong markets remain closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.


European markets will be mixed, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> would open between a 0.1 percent fall and a 0.4 percent gain. U.S. stock futures were up 0.1 percent to suggest a somewhat firmer Wall Street open. <.l><.eu><.n/>


Investors continued to seek cues from currency markets before a meeting of the Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers in Moscow on Friday and Saturday, with growing international tensions over exchange rates.


At the center of the debate is Japan, where Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has made it clear that it will push for aggressive policies to beat stubborn deflation through drastic monetary expansion. Anticipation of much bolder Bank of Japan monetary policy has sent the yen into a steady decline, helping boost Japanese stocks to 33-month highs.


"The Japanese stock market may have rallied too strongly on expectations alone. I don't believe the Japanese government is manipulating currency rates, but it is maybe time that an equilibrium point may be sought for the yen's level given that some other countries may see weaker currencies as beneficial to their economies," said Yuuki Sakurai, CEO at Fukoku Capital Management in Tokyo.


The yen's respite from heavy selling eased concerns for investors in South Korea.


"The main board's rebound was driven by a break in the yen's weakness, following signs that the won's strength has abated somewhat," said Lim Dong-rak, an analyst at Hanyang Securities in Seoul.


The yen rallied on Tuesday, reversing the previous day's late selloff against the dollar and euro, after an official with the Group of Seven said it is worried about excess moves in the Japanese currency.


G7 governors and ministers reaffirmed their commitment that fiscal and monetary policies would not be directed at devaluing currencies, a statement meant to reassure investors that Tokyo was not aiming to guide the yen lower with its aggressive expansion of monetary policy.


"All these comments are merely stating the obvious and are not to be taken in the context of whether they are endorsing a weaker yen or not," said Yuji Saito, director of foreign exchange at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.


"What is being said is that monetary policy should be used to achieve domestic objectives and Japan is undertaking reflationary policies, not manipulating currency rates, and the result of that is a weak yen. What is asked for from Japan is to explain its policy clearly at the G20," Saito said.


The dollar dropped 0.6 percent to 92.95 yen after marking its highest level since May 2010 of 94.465 on Monday. The euro tumbled 0.6 percent to 125.01 yen, moving further away from its highest since April 2010 of 127.71 yen touched last week.


The BOJ ends a two-day policy meeting on Thursday, with markets expecting no fresh easing steps this time. But expectations are running high that further unprecedented measures will be taken under a new BOJ regime due to start next month after the terms of current top officials end.


"So far, the yen has been weakening on expectations for a bold monetary policy, and from now, Japan has to implement actual policy to justify such expectations," said Naohiko Baba, Japan chief economist at Goldman Sachs.


The euro steadied around $1.3450, keeping overnight gains made after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said talk of a currency war was overdone, and that Spain was on the right track toward economic recovery.


In his annual State of the Union address, U.S. President Barack Obama proposed on Tuesday to hike the minimum wage by more than 20 percent, invest $50 billion on crumbling roads and bridges and spend $15 billion on a construction jobs program in a bid to boost economic growth.


U.S. crude was up 0.1 percent to $97.60 a barrel and Brent was steady around $118.61.


Palladium extended gains to a 17-month high as supply concerns sparked speculative buying, while gold edged up on demand from jewellers.


(Additional reporting by Joyce Lee in Seoul; Editing by Eric Meijer & Kim Coghill)



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Yen near fresh lows versus dollar, Asian shares steady

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen hovered near fresh lows against the dollar and Tokyo stocks jumped back near a 33-month high on Tuesday after markets took comments from a U.S. official as giving Japan the green light to pursue policies that weaken the yen as long as they help beat deflation.


Asian shares were steady, with many regional bourses shut for holidays. Encouraging trade data from China late last week was lending support but non-Japan markets lacked momentum as investors awaited key events such as the U.S. president's State of the Union address for trading cues.


While Japan has faced some criticism from German and other European officials that it is intentionally trying to weaken the yen with monetary easing, rhetoric about a so-called currency war was dialled back ahead of a Group of 20 meeting in Moscow on Friday and Saturday.


U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Lael Brainard said on Monday the United States supports Japanese efforts to end deflation. But she also mentioned that the G7 has long committed to exchange rates determined by market forces, "except in rare circumstances where excess volatility or disorderly movements might warrant cooperation.


European Central Bank council member Jens Weidmann also said the euro was not overvalued at current levels.


The dollar was trading at 94.22 yen after marking on Monday its highest level since May 2010 of 94.465. The euro was trading at 126.28 yen after the yen fell 2 percent against the euro on Monday, pushing it back towards 127.71 yen hit last week, its highest level since April 2010.


"I think the yen's weakening is a function of (playing)catch-up," and not Japan resorting to deliberate devaluation of its currency, said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York.


"It's the market's way of saying: we're convinced there is a movement afoot to reinflate Japan."


The weaker yen in turn helped bolster sentiment for Japanese stocks, sending the Nikkei average <.n225> 2.6 percent higher. <.t/>


"While currency moves have been sensitive to officials' comments in general, people thought any comment from the G20 would trigger yen buying," said Hiroichi Nishi, an assistant general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.


"But such worries are receding as she (Brainard) said she supports Japan's efforts to end deflation."


The yen is expected to stay under pressure on expectations that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will endorse a far more dovish Bank of Japan regime when the current leadership's term ends next month. The BOJ is expected to refrain from taking fresh easing steps when it meets this week.


The MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was little changed. Australian shares inched up 0.1 percent led by financials, as investors waited for corporate earnings results.


Trading resumed in Japan and South Korea but markets remained closed in Singapore, Hong Kong, mainland China, Malaysia and Taiwan.


G20 officials said on Monday the Group of Seven nations are considering a statement this week reaffirming their commitment to "market-determined" exchange rates.


Currency and equities markets were also looking ahead to President Barack Obama's State of the Union address later on Tuesday, for any signs of a deal to avert automatic spending cuts due to take effect on March 1.


"We believe that the G20's take on currency wars, Mr. Obama's upcoming state of the union address, and data on the current condition of the US economy should help markets assess where the global recovery stands and where we are heading," Barclays Capital said in a research report.


Wall Street and world equity markets were little changed in light volume on Monday as a lack of major economic news gave investors little incentive to push prices higher after a robust performance last week.


U.S. and Chinese data last week lifted the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> to a 12-year closing high and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> to a five-year peak on Friday.


U.S. crude futures edged down 0.2 percent to $96.88 a barrel while Brent steadied around $118.12.


Spot gold stayed near a one-month low.


(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa and Lisa Twaronite in Tokyo; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)



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