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Shinzo Abe, set to be prime minister, said Monday that there would be no negotiation over Japan’s stake in islands that China also claims, but his position is no tougher than the incumbents’.
TOKYO — Shinzo Abe, set to return as Japan’s prime minister after his party’s landslide victory on Sunday, means it when he says he knows what it feels like to hit rock bottom. His last term in office was marred by political financing scandals, a nationalist agenda that seemed off the mark and rumors — later confirmed — that he had resigned over an intestinal ailment, an ignominious exit that prompted snide jokes about his condition.
Mr. Abe’s impending comeback says more about the spectacular failure of the leaders who succeeded him than about a revival on his part. But Mr. Abe, 58, is in many ways a changed man. Though analysts say he remains deeply nationalistic at heart, he has toned down his hawkish language and instead has focused on reviving Japan’s moribund economy.
It is still possible that China, which has been enmeshed in a territorial quarrel with Japan, could prompt Mr. Abe to show his nationalist colors. He said Monday that there would be no negotiation over Japan’s claims to the set of islands in dispute, but he went no further than the incumbent Democrats, who have also asserted Japanese sovereignty over the islands.
So far, Mr. Abe has reserved his tough talk for the economy, promising public spending largess, a far more aggressive stand against deflation and bolder measures to weaken the strong yen, which has stifled Japan’s export-led economy. He peppered his campaign speeches with promises to rebuild a strong country, emphasizing resilience against natural disasters and economic downturns, rather than dwelling on North Korean rockets or the Chinese Navy.
The economic focus helped Mr. Abe lead his party, the Liberal Democrats, to victory while sidestepping difficult issues like nuclear power. The Liberal Democrats promoted nuclear power during their half-century of almost uninterrupted leadership until the Democrats ousted them from power in 2009, less than two years before the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami, which killed more than 20,000 people and set off the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
Markets have cheered on Mr. Abe’s economic turn, and rallied on Monday after his party’s decisive victory. The United States dollar reached as high as 84.48 yen on Monday, its highest level against the Japanese currency since April 2011. The Nikkei stock average, which surged 10 percent in the monthlong prelude to Sunday’s elections in anticipation of Mr. Abe’s economic policies, gained an additional 0.94 percent on Monday, rising to 9,828.88.
At a news conference on Monday, Mr. Abe said: “I once fell to rock bottom and was hit with a storm of criticism. Now, I want to prove it’s possible to start over again.”
Mr. Abe’s first stint as prime minister, in 2006-7, began on a high note. The Japanese news media hailed him as the first prime minister born after World War II and the handpicked successor to a popular leader, Junichiro Koizumi.
But Mr. Abe made the mistake of focusing on a drive to instill patriotism in schools and elevate the military’s status, an approach that appeared to be out of touch with a population more concerned about the state of the national pension system and other bread-and-butter issues. Mr. Abe quickly became an object of ridicule in the popular media, an embodiment of an expression popular at the time: “K.Y.,” for “kuuki yomenai,” which literally means “can’t read the air,” or “clueless.”
Mr. Abe’s cabinet was weakened by gaffes and a series of money and pension-related scandals that led four of his ministers to resign and a fifth to commit suicide. Overseas, he was criticized for denying that Japan’s wartime army had forced women into sexual slavery, despite historical documents and testimony. The controversy prompted United States lawmakers to pass a bill calling for an apology. And 10 months into his term, Mr. Abe’s governing party suffered a humiliating defeat in elections for Parliament’s upper house; two months later, he was gone.
With upper house elections expected this summer, Mr. Abe is determined not to make the same mistakes, analysts say. He will be especially cautious, they say, because his mandate is not as rock solid as the Liberal Democrats’ supermajority in the lower house might suggest. The party won just 40 percent of the vote in the country’s electoral districts, but benefited from a splintering of the opposition. If the opposition regroups or the Liberal Democrats stumble, the tables could quickly turn against them.
“In the beginning, he will keep a moderate tone,” said Yoshiaki Kobayashi, a professor of political science at Keio University in Tokyo. “He will avoid making waves by staying close to the United States. He knows he must focus on the economy first, for the upper house elections.”
