Russian Prosecutor Seeks Acquittal in Magnitsky’s Death

MOSCOW — A prosecutor unexpectedly pressed Monday for the acquittal of the only official to be tried in the case of Sergei L. Magnitsky, a lawyer whose death in prison three years ago generated an international furor over Russian human rights abuses.

The prosecutor’s turnabout, made in his closing argument, came as the Russian government has been moving aggressively to retaliate against the United States for adopting a law named for Mr. Magnitsky that will deny travel and investment access to Russian citizens accused of violating human rights.

Mr. Magnitsky was representing a London investment firm, Hermitage Capital, when he was arrested in November 2008 as he tried to expose a huge government tax fraud. He died, still in detention, nearly a year later. His supporters — including the firm’s founder, William F. Browder, once among the most prominent foreign investors in Russia and now a sharp critic of the Russian government — blamed the authorities for his death, saying he was denied proper medical care.

An investigation yielded charges against two people, both doctors: Larisa Litvinova, who oversaw Mr. Magnitsky’s treatment during his last weeks, and Dmitri Kratov, formerly the chief medical official of the prison where he was held for the last four months of his life, Butyrskaya. This year, prosecutors dropped a charge of professional negligence against Dr. Litvinova, saying the statute of limitations had run out.

On Monday, the prosecutor, Konstantin Bokov, urged the court to acquit Dr. Kratov. “There is no cause-and-effect relationship between Kratov’s actions and Magnitsky’s death,” Mr. Bokov said, according to Russian news services. “I request his acquittal.” A verdict is expected by the end of the week.

A lawyer for Mr. Magnitsky’s family, however, told the court that Dr. Kratov signed prison records declaring Mr. Magnitsky fit to remain imprisoned despite his repeated complaints about needing medical care, and that Dr. Kratov knew that Mr. Magnitsky was suffering from acute pancreatitis and gallstones in the days before his death.

The lawyer, Nikolay Gorokhov, blamed President Vladmir V. Putin for the prosecution’s move, noting that Mr. Putin at his annual news conference last week angrily brushed off a question about why Russian officials had not thoroughly investigated Mr. Magnitsky’s death. Mr. Gorokhov accused the authorities of failing to carry out a thorough investigation or a fair trial, and said important evidence and witnesses were suppressed.

After President Obama signed the Magnitsky Act this month, Russian officials proposed blocking American adoptions of Russian orphans and imposing sanctions on American judges and others who fail to halt or punish abuse of Russian adoptees.

Mr. Putin was pressed about the adoption ban eight times at his news conference. He would not say if he would sign the ban, but he said that Russia had to retaliate and that it was hypocritical of the United States, accused of abuses around the world, to criticize Russia on human rights.

“I don’t know the details, but I know anyway that Mr. Magnitsky died not from torture — nobody tortured him — but from a heart attack,” Mr. Putin said, adding that the only question was if he was given help in time.

But he quickly moved on to attacking the United States. “Do you think people don’t die in American prisons?” he asked. “Come on. And so what? Shall we play it up?”

Mr. Putin also pointed a finger at Mr. Browder, of Hermitage Capital, who was barred from Russia without warning in 2005, for making a mission of seeking justice in Mr. Magnitsky’s case.

“Besides, this Mr. Magnitsky, as is known, was not some human rights champion; he did not struggle for human rights,” Mr. Putin said. “He was the lawyer of Mr. Browder, who is suspected by our law enforcement of committing economic crimes.”

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El MIDI, la tecnología que le abrió la puerta a la música digital, cumple 30 años

Un pequeño teclado y un ordenador portátil: hasta que apareció la tecnología MIDI, hace 30 años, nadie imaginaba que sólo con ese equipo se podría dar un concierto. Dicen los entendidos que para apreciar realmente el tema Shine on you crazy diamond , de Pink Floyd, es mejor escucharlo en vinilo.

Las emisiones de los sintetizadores estallan a través del crepitar de la púa sobre el disco, mientras la guitarra y la batería marcan un ritmo ondulante. Es un sonido enorme que define toda una época, y uno puede sumergirse por completo en el espíritu de esos años con esa versión en vinilo.

Pero más allá de la impresionante creatividad de la música, el sonido evidencia una importante limitación en la forma en la que los instrumentos musicales electrónicos se controlaban en aquel momento.

“Una banda como Kraftwerk, por ejemplo, utilizaba 200 teclados analógicos distintos”, explica el músico argentino Cineplexx.

Pero la tecnología de la Interfaz Digital de Instrumentos Musicales (MIDI, según sus siglas en inglés) permitió conectar los instrumentos a una computadora y entre sí, lo que supuso un cambio enorme.

“Yo cuando doy un concierto utilizo un teclado con 20 teclas y un ordenador portátil”, cuenta Cineplexx .

Con estos elementos es posible componer, secuenciar, programar, modificar y reproducir el sonido de cualquier instrumento, como “un vibráfono o un sintetizador”.

Un lenguaje común

El protocolo MIDI nació en California, de la mano de Dave Smith, un fabricante de sintetizadores, que convenció a sus competidores para que adoptaran un formato en común que permitiera controlar de forma externa a los sintetizadores, con otro teclado o incluso a través de una computadora.

MIDI pronto se convertiría en el estándar industrial para conectar diferentes instrumentos electrónicos, cajas de ritmo, samplers y ordenadores. Esta tecnología abrió una “nueva era de procesamiento musical”.

“Lo que hizo MIDI es permitir el nacimiento de los primeros estudios de grabación caseros”, cuenta Smith en conversación con Tom Bateman, de BBC Radio 4.

El Prophet-600 de Sequential Circuits en acción

“Las computadoras eran lo suficientemente rápidas como para secuenciar notas y controlar el número de teclados y cajas de ritmos al mismo tiempo, y eso abrió paso a una industria nueva”.

Fue un avance que tendría el mismo impacto en la música popular que la electrificación de guitarras, desarrollada décadas antes.

El nacimiento de la música dance

Alex Paterson , fundador de la banda de ambient dance llamada The Orb, tiene un estudio de grabación en su casa de Buckinghamshire, Reino Unido.

“Que Dios bendiga a MIDI”, exclama al ser consultado.

“Fue como entrar en un sueño”, cuenta, refiriéndose al sistema utilizado en 1990 para grabar el tema emblemático de la banda, Little Fluffy Clouds.

“Estaba todo allí guardado, listo para que tú lo lances, fue realmente increíble”, recuerda.

Este control orquestado y secuenciado de los sonidos de sintetizadores, cajas de ritmo y samplers dio lugar a nuevas formas de producción: así nació la música dance.

Lo que hizo MIDI fue “separar la tecla del sonido”, dice Cineplexx. Ahora se pueden crear órdenes digitales y asignarle a cada tecla los sonidos que se quieran.

El músico argentino ofrece una comparación interesante con las cámaras digitales y analógicas en el mundo de la fotografía.

“Hay quienes cuestionan la calidad”, dice, pero destaca que en la práctica el MIDI proporcionó la posibilidad de escribir partituras digitales interpretarlas como se quiera con un pequeño teclado.

Libre acceso

El primer instrumento con capacidad MIDI fue un sintetizador llamado Prophet-600 – diseñado por Dave Smith – que comenzó a producirse en 1982.

Las computadoras Atari y Commodore 64, muy populares entre los aficionados a los videojuegos en aquella época, también podían utilizarse para controlar instrumentos MIDI a través de un cable con conectores DIN (de cinco puntas) en cada extremo.

La amplia disponibilidad del formato y la facilidad de su uso permitieron redefinir la música pop de los 80, le aportaron un fuerte sonido electrónico y engendraron muchos de los géneros musicales contemporáneos.

Dom Beken, coproductor de Alex Paterson, recuerda cómo la tecnología MIDI permitió que cualquiera pudiera crear “masivos paisajes sonoros”. “Pioneros de la electrónica y antiguos punks ahora podían hacer cosas que enloquecían al público en las pistas de baile”, dice.

Para Dave Smith, MIDI sólo podía triunfar si todos los fabricantes la adoptaban. “Tuvimos que regalarla”, dice. La universalidad del formato fue quizás un ejemplo precursor de lo que ahora se denomina tecnología de código abierto (open source), para que cualquiera tuviera acceso.

“Por supuesto que hubiera sido divertido ganar dinero con ella”, dice su creador californiano.

“Pero ese no era el plan”.

Treinta años después, la tecnología MIDI se mantiene como uno de los componentes centrales de la grabación y producción profesional de música.

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Sandy Hook Shootings: How to Cope

By Howard Breuer

12/23/2012 at 06:00 PM EST

State police personnel lead children to safety away from the Sandy Hook Elementary School

Shannon Hicks/Newtown Bee/Reuters/Landov

The Sandy Hook massacre, in which 20 innocent children and six heroic elementary school faculty members were gunned down last Friday, is particularly difficult for people – even those thousands of miles away from Newtown, Conn. – to process, according to mental health experts.

"This tragedy is so deeply affecting the national psyche, reminding us of 9/11, because of its assault on Norman Rockwell's vision of America," psychiatrist Carole Lieberman tells PEOPLE.

Friday was proclaimed a national day of mourning for those lost a week ago, with a moment of silence called for at 9:30 a.m. Eastern time, as 26 churchbells rang in Newtown and elsewhere. In addition, First Lady Michelle Obama sent an open letter of condolence to the town, saying the entire nation "is holding you in our hearts."

But how do those directly involved with the tragedy find the strength to cope?

To do that, family members who lost loved ones need immediate counseling and to maintain their normal routines. They also need to draw support from other affected families who can relate to what they're going through, says Dr. Stephanie N. Marcy, a psychologist at Children's Hospital Los Angeles.

"I think the people on the ground are feeling a sense of hopelessness because there is no way to justify what happened," Marcy says. "They need to be around other people who have experienced and understand it. If you were all involved together, you can empathize and grieve together."

In many of these families, the remaining children might have survivor's guilt, she adds.

"They rethink what they did that day and wonder if they in some way contributed to the death of a sibling, or they wonder, why did I survive?" Marcy says.

Therapists will need to explain to kids who lost a sibling that their "false belief that they should have been able to prevent it is not correct," adds Marcy.

Children at Sandy Hook may also have Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and will need therapy, Lieberman says.

What to Tell Children

And what do parents whose children were not involved in the tragedy tell their own youngsters about what happened? That, Marcy says, depends on how old they are and how much they know already.

"Kindergarteners and first graders don't need to be told about it unless you think they will hear it somewhere else. For older kids, you have to get to know what they know, answer any questions they might have, and be truthful – but don't say too much," Marcy says. "Say that a person who was having problems, that was sick, went into a school and injured some people for no particular reason. Tell them it would never happen at their school."

"Yes," she adds, "it could happen anywhere. But there's no point in letting your child think that, [because] they may be flooded with fear."

For the adults and children across the country who have been vicariously traumatized, Marcy says, "We need to regain our sense of control, because this type of event makes us feel completely helpless."

Lieberman adds that Americans "are also feeling a generalized anxiety, a fear that no place is safe anymore. They need to talk to friends and family, get involved in championing causes that make society better, to volunteer for charities, and to get psychotherapy if the sadness and anxiety persist."

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Asian shares steady, U.S. budget concerns weigh

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares steadied in quiet pre-holiday trade on Monday from a slump late last week, with prices capped by nervousness about the risk of the United States failing to avert a fiscal crisis.

European shares will likely be subdued, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse> and Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> to open steady to 0.1 percent higher. <.l><.eu/>

Activity in other assets was also subdued, with spot gold steadying as investors took to the sidelines, while oil extended losses, with U.S. crude inching down 0.2 percent to remain below $89 a barrel while Brent futures eased 0.3 percent to $108.70.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.1 percent after falling to a near two-week low on Friday when House of Representatives Speak John Boehner failed to gain support for a tax plan, raising fears the U.S. may not be able to avert the "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases set to start January 1.

The White House on Friday tried to rescue stalled talks but there was little headway as lawmakers and President Barack Obama abandoned Washington for Christmas.

Many market players still expect both sides to reach a compromise before the year-end deadline but heightening tensions were likely to stifle trade already slowed by the holidays.

"It's all about the U.S. fiscal cliff issue," said Victor Shum, managing director at IHS Purvin & Gertz. "The chances are that we will get a deal between the White House and the Republicans, but the fact that Boehner failed to get members to support his plan is worrying."

Australian shares <.axjo> advanced 0.25 percent in a shortened session before the Christmas break, lifted by blue chips, but trade was extremely thin with many players already away.

The Hang Seng Index <.hsi> closed up 0.2 percent, with Hong Kong financial markets shut at midday for the Christmas holiday and resuming trading on Thursday. Shanghai shares <.ssec> outperformed their peers with a 0.5 percent rise on expectations for more public funds' allocations.

South Korean shares <.ks11> edged up 0.1 percent in light trading before Christmas Day, with the weakening Japanese yen and U.S. fiscal uncertainty keeping investors uneasy.

Japanese financial markets are closed for a public holiday and will resume trading on Tuesday.

The dollar inched up 0.2 percent to 84.35 yen, having fallen below 84 yen on Friday. The dollar hit a 20-month high of 84.62 yen on December 19.

The yen has been pressured by expectations the Bank of Japan will be compelled to adopt more drastic monetary stimulus measures next year as incoming prime minister Shinzo Abe demands action by the central bank to bring Japan out of decades-long deflation.

Abe stepped up pressure over the weekend, saying on Japanese television that he will try to reform a law guaranteeing the BOJ's independence if his demand for a binding inflation target is not met.

Currency speculators increased their bets against the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday. Bets against the yen fell after reaching a more than five-year peak.

But market players generally see the dollar staying firm for now as the U.S. fiscal impasse will likely continue to sap investor appetite for risky assets and raise the dollar's safe-haven appeal.

"It looks like all momentum for the fiscal cliff negotiations is gone," said Rob Ryan, strategist for RBS in Singapore. While the dollar could be swayed by year-end flows, "on balance I would see a stronger U.S. dollar into the end of the year," Ryan said.

EPFR Global, a fund-tracking firm, said on Friday that investors around the world pulled $4.1 billion from bond funds worldwide during the week ending December 19, the most since August 2011, and favored riskier exchange-traded funds despite the U.S. budget tussle.

ETFs are generally believed to represent the behavior of institutional investors, and can be used opportunistically to bet on various indexes.

EURO ZONE SET TO FOCUS ON ITALY

Focus for the euro zone next year will turn to Italy, where Mario Monti announced on Sunday, two days after his resignation, that he would consider seeking a second term as Italian prime minister if approached by allies committed to backing his austere brand of reforms.

Stakes will be high at a parliamentary election set for February 24-25, as the world's eighth largest economy suffers from recession and public debt exceeding $2.6 billion, have aggravated investor concerns about growth and stability in the euro zone.

Italy faces a huge bond redemption in the first quarter of 2013 and a failure to secure funding could refuel concerns about sovereign financing not only in Italy but also similarly-indebted Spain, battering confidence in the euro.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano and Manash Goswami in Singapore; Editing by Eric Meijer)

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French Arts Institutions Turn to Crowdfunding

Stéphane Remael for The International Herald Tribune

The Panthéon in Paris, which needs repairs to the dome.

PARIS — The crass term for it is begging, but the French prefer a loftier description: “participatory financing.”

For as little as a single euro even the most ordinary art connoisseur can join the fund-raising fraternité that is working to restore the dome of the Panthéon here. Contribute a few hundred more and you get an invitation from the Center for National Monuments, the French landmarks agency, to a party there, at the emblematic temple of the republic.

Maybe you’d like to help the Louvre buy a pair of 13th-century ivory statuettes, or the Museum of Fine Arts in Lyon get the Ingres oil it so very much desires? Please?

The austerity measures that have hurt the arts across the Continent have been particularly unsettling in France, where cultural spending is so sacrosanct that it has long been one investment on which governments both left and right could agree. But now the directors of grand cultural institutions here are resorting to public appeals just to pay for the things they want, cobbling together the money not by courting millionaires but just the average Jules.

Contributors, alas, do not score the French equivalent of a PBS tote bag. But a whole range of other enticements, from free tickets to party invitations, have been trotted out. Donate to the Panthéon cause, for example, and your picture will be posted on a temporary kiosk outside.

So far the appeals are working.

With the help of 2,500 contributors, the Louvre has raised $654,000 toward acquiring the statuettes, priced at $3.4 million.

The Lyon museum has collected $91,000 toward that painting by Jean Auguste Dominique Ingres, which depicts the Renaissance writer Pietro Aretino receiving an envoy of Charles V and is valued at close to $1 million.

During the first campaign for the Panthéon, where the remains of towering French figures like Victor Hugo and Alexandre Dumas are interred in the Latin Quarter, officials deliberately set a modest initial fund-raising goal of $6,500 to avoid intimidating donors. It was quickly surpassed and, in four weeks, the campaign has reaped almost $34,000. More than 450 contributors were lured, in part by appeals to national solidarity.

“My passion is history and so I gave 300 euros,” Cyril Guerineau, 36, a police officer from outside of Paris, said of his donation of about $395. “It’s a monument that is the most prominent symbol in our nation with a lot of luminaries buried there who represent the history of France.” He added that he was also interested in the party invitation.

Even today the French government spends more than twice as much on culture as Germany, a larger and more prosperous neighbor. But a cut to the culture budget of more than 4 percent, to $3.1 billion, is the first in more than 30 years. Money for new art acquisitions has shrunk to $11.1 million, from $26 million in 2009.

The cuts have set off a scramble among institutions for additional revenues. One result is that medieval nudes, landmarks and a blindfolded ivory statuette of the allegorical figure “La Synagogue” are transforming into muses of charity, exhorting, “Become a patron in two clicks!” on Web sites.

“We’re all confronted with the same reality and exploring the same track,” said Philippe Bélaval, president of the landmarks agency, which is working with a crowdfunding French start-up, My Major Company, in a pilot project to raise money for four state landmarks, including restoration projects at the Panthéon and Mont St.-Michel.

“With crowdfunding,” he said, “we have an advantage in the competition. Our monuments are deeply part of our country and the collective conscious of people.”

The landmark agency is so pleased with the initial results, Mr. Bélaval said, that it is pondering an expansion into Japan, whose tourists make up 30 percent of the visitors to Mont St.-Michel. And this month My Major Company sent letters to more than 300 French mayors, promoting online fund-raising for local civic projects.

The company, founded in 2007 in France to finance musical projects, started backing cultural landmarks after approaching the culture ministry with the idea. French authorities were intrigued, though concerned about perceptions in a country where tax dollars historically play a larger role in arts financing than they do in, say, the United States, said Michael Goldman, 33, a founder of My Major Company. “It’s a real solution for a lot of areas in crisis,” he said.

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RIM shares fall at the open after earnings

TORONTO (Reuters) – Research In Motion Ltd fell in early trading on Friday following the BlackBerry maker’s Thursday earnings announcement, when the company outlined plans to change the way it charges for services.

RIM, pushing to revive its fortunes with the launch of its new BlackBerry 10 devices next month, surprised investors when it said it plans to alter its service revenue model, a move that could put the high-margin business under pressure.

Shares fell 16.0 percent to $ 11.86 in early trading on the Nasdaq. Toronto-listed shares fell 15.8 percent to C$ 11.74.

(Reporting by Allison Martell; Editing by Gerald E. McCormick)

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Eric Ladin Welcomes a Son

Mom & Babies
Celebrity Baby Blog

12/23/2012 at 12:00 AM ET

Noah Graham/Noah Graham Photography

Eric Ladin is one killer new dad.

The former Killing actor and his wife Katy welcomed their first child, son Maxfield David Ladin, on Friday, Dec. 21 in Los Angeles, his rep confirms to PEOPLE exclusively.

“Wow! The last 24 hrs have been the best of my life. Forever changed, I am now a father,” the actor says.

Announcing the pregnancy in May, the first-time father admitted he and his fashion designer/stylist wife were thrilled to be starting a family — despite entering into the unknown.

“Katy and I couldn’t be happier, we have always wanted to be parents. Now what the hell do we do?” Ladin, 34, joked.

– Anya Leon with reporting by Michelle Tan

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

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Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

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AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.

A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.

Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.

Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.

"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.

"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.

If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.

For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.

Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.

IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY

Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.

If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.

"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.

"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."

Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.

Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.

"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.

"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."

Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.

The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.

Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.

U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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